Sales is more than just a numbers game...

What’s the sales (forecast) algorithm for your business?

While reading a recent issue of Popular Science, I was intrigued by the article “The Santa Cruz Experiment: Can a City's Crime Be Predicted and Prevented?” (October, 2011). It’s fascinating and appears to hold great potential. However, what triggered a related thought to the challenge of accurate sales forecasting (i.e., your sales algorithm) was this: “One of the most common criticisms of predictive policing is that it will not tell police officers anything they don’t know already.”

When I talk to organizations about instituting a disciplined sales approach, and the need for good data gathering, resistance to software and information technology reflects a similar sentiment. Salespeople would rather operate on their own intuition than trust a computer model (or algorithm) to help them predict the close of a sale. 

As the article points out, “An algorithm is a progressive series of calculations used to process and analyze large sets of data.” Said another way, it’s not foolproof in predicting an exact outcome; it merely points to the likelihood of something to occur based on past behavior (or available data). In my mind, that’s the Catch-22 in sales forecasts; if you can’t get people to enter the data, you won’t be able to get the algorithm to reflect a reasonable prediction.

Since I believe most customers have a defined purchase process, and most organizations can likely map a common sales cycle, I struggle to understand why it seems so difficult to build a more predictable forecast model. Rather than ‘gut probability’, often reflected as a percentage of likeliness to close (get the order), it seems to me that you should be able to weight factors against common data points (e.g., time lapse, stage of the sales cycle, past performance/seniority of the salesperson, etc.) and develop a more accurate sales forecast prediction.

My recent discussions with sales professionals, managers, and business owners and executives on this topic have given rise to the notion that the unpredictability that can’t be factored in is “people”. That applies to both sides of the sales equation; on the customer side and the vendor/supplier side. However, the Santa Cruz Experiment leads me to believe that even in high-touch sales situations, where long term relationships help drive business, some predictability could be factored in.

Read the article from Popular Science and let’s get some discussion going on this topic. Also, think in terms of those companies that don’t have the luxury of large software and information technology budgets. Can the average company develop and implement a predictive sales model?

Law enforcement says "No" to texting -- GM and OnStar say "Yes" to Facebook?

A favorite phrase of mine, that I am often known to utter, seems to fit here; “Help me understand this.” We’re not supposed to text while driving, and many believe that even hands-free conversation on a cell phone is a risk – something about distraction and multitasking don’t mix well with driving. There are a few insurance company television commercials trying to point that out, too. That said, check out this recent news release:

[15-Sep-2010 – General Motors Global] With over 500 million members, social media networks like Facebook have become a part of daily life. To meet society's growing desire to be connected at all times, "OnStar is: unveiling a new social media interactive program for the car." The OnStar Facebook application will enable drivers to verbally dictate a message to update their status. With only a push of a button, the service will also allow subscribers to listen to their most recent news feeds. Other new technologies will include voice-based texting, which allows customers to send and receive texts using Bluetooth. In addition to the introduction of innovative car apps, the company is improving on its tried and true services like Automatic Crash Response. The latest version is being enhanced with a new service called First Assist which provides important life-saving instructions to occupants until first responders arrive.

Really, how important is it to update your Facebook status from within your car? Taking it one step further, I can only imagine some of the "voice-based texting" I might see from drivers who are recording the message as someone cuts them off in traffic -- I don't recall if those words are in my T9 predictive text.

If you are a BMW driver who wants to experience "Joy is BMW", or you are one who appreciates the handling of your brand of driving machine, I think you will be a little too busy to do the social media thing.  What do you think?

Would you please ShareThis

I have a t-shirt with a picture of a well-known milk chocolate candy bar on the front and a caption below that reads, “Sharing is overrated.” I get my fair share of chuckles and comments when I wear it; sadly, it’s beginning to show its age, just like me.

When it comes to the Internet and Social Media, some may think that sharing is overrated, too. But for those who do share, companies are eager to learn why, and with whom. Today’s The Wall Street Journal carried an article titled “Sites in Like, Not Love, With Facebook Link”. Buried in the copy was some background information about ShareThis, a company that helps publishers share content and websites between users and subscribers, which translates into a growing community of influencers.  It’s as simple as sharing what you like with others in hopes that they, too, will find it useful and interesting. Influencers drive more (in ShareThis terms) “traffic, engagement or monetization”.

In our own case here, the insight gained from the ShareThis reports, along with other analytics and reporting, helps me better understand what posts or categories you find most interesting, and what you are willing to share with others. The ShareThis button you find at the end of every post is a convenient way for you to pass along that post’s information, ideas, product information, or opinions, which I hope encourages others to read or subscribe to our blog.

When it comes to the content I put before you, “Would you please ShareThis”.

Compelled to hold back a belch, but not an email?

Oh, gross! Pardon me; I couldn’t think of a better way to get your attention. Ever notice how people will make a valiant attempt to hold back belching in a public setting, but let it all hang out when it comes to email? Sure, I have probably put out a few choice ones myself, but I do try and reread longer notes in case I have erred in word, tone, or voice.

Some of this may be attributed to the prolific use of abbreviations, TLAs (three letter acronyms), and words that could easily be misunderstood in a negative way. It can make you wonder how much is put at risk in an otherwise meaningful message. Is there a simple way to exercise some restraint in this instant response world we live in?

Taking the belch notion a little bit further, the larger the setting, e.g., the size of the distribution list, the more you may want to avoid embarrassing yourself. Smaller audience? Maybe you would get a second look, or possibly a chuckle, but the risk is much lower. Just as you wouldn’t want a bigger audience as you are about to cut loose, there is little need to increase the distribution list from the original group. You may want to make it smaller – think twice about hitting Reply All.

When it comes to anger that will potentially be directed in a note, a trip to the closet may be the best first step. In this regard, think of belching as a large amount of steam, smoke, or gas that is suddenly expelled from a chimney or tower. Go into the nearest closet, close the door, and vent all you want – you’ll feel better and the only person to know how bad you feel is you.

On the softer side of email is the built-in word correction in Outlook. Great feature; right? Not really. I have found like-words that will completely destroy a sentence, and can take on a whole new meaning of ‘oops; sorry’ - today the correction was made as “experience” when I meant to type “expensive”. It pays to read an email a couple of times before hitting Send.

Maybe you have some tips to share with us on how you avoid the repercussions before they are heard. What antacid do you take to avoid the noise, before you begin to compose that little missive?

0 to 60 in less than 5: Salesbarriers odometer spins to 333

As the blog odometer rolls 333 Posts today, I will soon celebrate four years of blog writing – the TypePad account dashboard shows I have been a “Member Since: May 2006”. What an adventure this has been. Although what seemed a rough and rocky start as I tried to learn the medium, the method, and the message (you wanted to hear), I soon began to get a feel for blogging. My thanks goes out to some loyal friends and business associates who encouraged me to continue, and offered their suggestions and ideas; without their cheerleading, I may have (prematurely) pulled the plug on this endeavor.

Initially I found myself writing in an impromptu way, i.e., if I felt it was something worth mention, I’d pen a piece. I soon realized that I would rather use a more disciplined approach, much like we advocate in our NvestNtech business and sales consulting practice, e.g., “It takes a disciplined process to produce an accelerated sales cycle.” I soon adopted a Tuesday and Thursday cycle of writing and posting to the blog.

When we introduced the One Goal - Revenue Generation ® podcast series, audio now became a part of the blog effort. This took more planning and prep time than penning a quick Post, but the results were equally rewarding. Beyond regular downloads by listeners, our podcasts are available on iTunes, Odeo, and Podcast Alley.

As we established a dedicated audience of listeners, we added the One Goal - Revenue Generation ® Group on LinkedIn. After joining the Group, you can discuss your own personal selling situations as they might relate to an individual podcast episode, or in a broader sense of the profession of Sales.

Fast-forward to today and you will find that Posts now happen as topics come my way. Whether the result of a phone call, an interview, a discussion, news item, event, or activity, I now publish a short or long Post most any day of the week, as well as odd hours of the day.

I really enjoy hearing from readers and subscribers; comments that add to the discussion are appreciated, too. Let me take this opportunity to thank you for your support and becoming a loyal subscriber. If you are a more casual visitor, I would encourage you to add the RSS feed to your browser, or opt-in to getting Posts by email. You will find handy links to do this in the blog, or look for the ShareThis icon at the bottom of each Post for more distribution options.

As we move forward into 2010, I am looking at adding a new audio series of personal interviews with business leaders. Look for more information on the new series in the coming months. In the meantime, it’s back to the daily grind and encouraging clients to have One Goal - Revenue Generation ®.

Tech in Review: Trackle Pro – Information bird dog for the business Professional

Today, Trackle announced their new premium service of their popular information tracking and alert service. The newly released Trackle Pro, a fee-based subscription, is intended for business professionals, especially those in Sales, Marketing, or Public Relations roles.

The original Trackle service (which is free) allows subscribers to use “tracklets” – think category or type of news and information – to follow their interests in shopping deals, jobs, travel, stocks, sports, and more. Trackle claims, “An average user tracks about ten items which generate about twenty alerts per day.”

Soon Trackle discovered that it wasn’t just everyday consumers and individuals using their service for personal interests. They found that professionals in Sales and Marketing, as well as Public Relations and HR, were using the service to track companies, stocks, brand recognition and ranking, personnel changes, and more.

Many of us attempt the same thing with the use of an information tracking service in one form or another. Most fall into two primary categories, the entry level (often free) that makes a broad sweep across the Web, and the higher-end paid services that are specific and highly targeted in their information gathering and delivery.

I use Google Alerts as a simple and easy way to keep up with a small number of companies and people. I also get daily alerts from Business Wire that keeps me abreast of my interests in specific companies, headline news, market segments, or special interests (e.g., Blogging, Accounting, Social Media, Rail, Consulting, Environment, University, etc.). I subscribe to a number of other sources for alerts and information, too.

When it comes to the idea of Trackle Pro, I was a little skeptical at first; I wondered why people would be willing to pay for this level of information unless it was directly related to their business, or role in the company, e.g., Public Relations firms, Corporate Communications, or Marketing departments with a need for competitive intelligence gathering.

To answer that question, Pavan Nigam, CEO and Founder of Trackle, took me through a guided tour of Trackle Pro last week. The original Trackle was born out of Nigam’s personal experience; as he describes it in his CEO Blog, “One day, it dawned upon me that my web-usage had a fairly simple pattern.  I found myself repeatedly going to the same websites for discovering changes.“

It didn’t take long for me to appreciate the value in Trackle Pro. Instead of the many feeds of information I get today, I could create my own customized dashboard of information retrieval. Trackle has partnered with a number of recognized information sources as well as their own ability to scour the Web to provide timely and relevant information. Subscribers will be able to build their own ‘favorites’ (of sources) along the way and share them with others.

During the demo, Nigam commented, "Right now a lot of people are trying to use Google Alerts to find all kinds of information when they really need a more robust research tool that spans their personal and professional interests. Trackle saves them a lot of time looking for all kinds of information online, but the real savings is in tracking the information they're not aware of - like a new lead in their LinkedIn network."

As a Trackle Pro subscriber, I can select tracking from the following categories: Company; Person; Brand; SEC filings; Website Changes and LinkedIn updates. Within those categories I can establish business rules – driven mainly by check boxes and free-form text fields – to retrieve only that information meaningful to me. There is even a chart feature to measure the “buzz”.

Trackle uses advanced algorithms to ensure a higher quality of information hits. Delivery of the information can be sent in a variety of ways. Much like my current methods, I can specify email, Web, or SMS. Incorporated in the email list of alerts – one email contains all my alert categories – are hyperlinks that work like a bookmark to my subscriber page on  the Trackle site.

They are offering a 14-day free trial to get you started, then three levels of paid subscription, based on use/demand, starting at $9.99/month. Encouraged by the capabilities, I have some reservation in the price structure as it stands today.

Since the competition at the entry level is either free, or burden-only (i.e., the time and effort to find it on your own), unless you are tracking a small and well-defined landscape of information, I see people quickly needing to go to the higher levels of the Trackle Pro price structure. Also, where I see competition for them on the original Trackle in the form of sites like Everyblock.com, I see services like HubSpot, or deeper integration like Hoovers with Salesforce.com, pushing at them from the Trackle Pro side.

When it comes to Trackle Pro’s interaction with LinkedIn and Facebook, unless I am missing something, I think I could be patient for that information and use the existing notifications in each. I find that LinkedIn is enabling more ways to alert me to the activities in my network of contacts, social media, and groups. In some ways, all of this reminds me a little of the URL shortening market; one day it’s TinyURL, then shortly thereafter bit.ly takes the lead.

On the Sales and Marketing front, I can see the value for Marketing; but if this were intended as a tool for Sales to use for sales leads or demand generation, then it might be more difficult to justify (depending on your territory or sales assignment) the expense. Where I could see it in Sales would be for National Account reps (or those assigned to key accounts, or specific market segments), or those responsible for key channels of distribution.

If I were a Public Relations firm, I wouldn’t hesitate to try it out, and likely become a subscriber. The same applies to Corporate Communications and HR; professional recruiters could probably make use of it, too. If you were a Brand Manager, especially in a smaller firm, or a small business owner, Trackle Pro would probably be worth your time and investment. Also, if you are an emerging company or start-up, it could be a very useful tool on a wide range of information needs and market forces.

Outsource: To “d” or not to “d“ - that is the question

If you were to outsource your accounting, how would you refer to it? Would you say that you outsource (your) accounting, or that you use outsourced accounting (services) for your business. One reference is with a “d”, and one is without.

We often see the reference to someone (a company) that may outsource their development, e.g., software and information technology. At the same time, we read about companies that have outsourced their development (in the larger sense of a business practice).

Going back to the original question at the beginning of this Post, how would you make the reference if you were to outsource your accounting requirements to a third-party (e.g., CPA) provider? If you currently perform your accounting in-house, and wanted to outsource it, would you put the “d” on the end in a search engine request (e.g., outsourced accounting)?

Also,  under our current economic conditions and the desire to maximize productivity, what parts of your business do you think offer the most potential to outsource the requirement to others?  Are they more services-oriented, or production-driven in nature?

A healthy shout out to our U.K. subscribers

Whenever we release a new Podcast, I see the RSS subscriber numbers go up. This is partly due to iTunes and Odeo subscriptions, but also everyday subscribers who are following the text side of this blog via the RSS feed get our Podcasts. Included in those numbers are those of you who get an email version of the Post by way of FeedBurner email.

When we installed the Feedjit widget on the blog for a map of recent visitors, it was no surprise to see the concentration of readers in the U.S. But, in looking at the FeedBurner reports of subscribers (to the RSS feed), we have been following the recent ratio favoring the UK. Depending on the day, the UK FeedBurner subscribers far outpace the US.

Let me take this opportunity to send a healthy shout out to the UK and say, “thank you”. Having spent a fair amount of time in the UK, and a three-year employment stint working for a UK-based company, I get a warm feeling being able to share some conversation across the pond.

But now I find I have a question gnawing at me. What am I doing in putting Posts together that has a broader appeal such as this, and seems to favor a UK audience in some form? When working in the UK, and other nearby countries, I found we were all faced with similar issues as it relates to business and work/life balance. But this blog often goes down a path that is not related to business. Whether a new product introduction, or reflections on a recent do-it-yourself project, not all the links or stories seemed global to me. Or, are they?

What the business world needs now is another email newsletter company

While working out the details to a new series of podcasts last night, we found ourselves talking about the proliferation of companies trying to make money with near identical solutions; in this case, we were talking about Internet browsers and how do you make any money at it. Yes, we went down the route of ad revenues, etc., but it still left a void in our minds.

As I looked through my Webmail account early this morning, trying to ignore most of the banner ads, one ad catches my attention. It is an advertisement for a new email newsletter service. My mind meanders to the thought, “Another one (of these)? Why?”

Seeing this ad flash by made me think of all the ways companies are trying to get information, usage tips, and new product information across people’s desk(top)s. In our case, we have used an eNewsletter for many years, with Constant Contact as our current provider.

I have noticed a drop-off in ‘Opens’ and ‘Clicks’, most likely a result of firewalls, spam filters, and other screening devices. Even though we use a Spam Checker before we send the email – to which we normally score a ‘zero’ (as in, it should easily get through) – subscribers are telling us that the eNewsletter is being trapped.

I have experienced the same thing with inbound email. It seems no matter what format or medium, be that a PDF attachment, hyperlinked text, or a well-mannered HTML presentation, more emails end up as ‘Junk’ in my Inbox.

With yet another email newsletter company looking for customers, I am now wondering what means do companies use to send their information to customers and prospects. Without including the likes of YouTube videos, and regular advertising, I created a simple five choice selection poll.

The choices are:

• Plain text email with hyperlinks
• Attach a PDF file to an email
• Use an eNewsletter provider like Constant Contact
• Send something via regular (snail) mail
• We don't send anything via email or mail

I’ll hold the poll open for a couple of weeks, then post the results as a Comment to this Post. We’re going to send this to our eNewsletter subscribers, too – many of which get our eNewletter and subscribe to this blog. You can take the poll by clicking here.

Where do I know you from; a lost art?

Long before all the fancy social networking sites and contact-sharing tools we use today, the old-fashioned encounter between two people was more like tripping over each other than a refined, planned approach. Recently I happened to see someone in a group setting and was troubled that although I knew this person, I couldn’t place where I had met them before.

I approached the woman and said, “You look very familiar, where do I know you from?” She didn’t know. So I proceeded with a few places we could have met – neighborhood, church, children’s school, etc. In the end, we couldn’t make the connection. Oh, well, maybe it will come to me later.

Thinking about this for a moment, I began to wonder why I don’t see this interaction in public as much as I used to. I reflected on my days in a sales territory where this was quite commonplace; from the casual encounter in a restaurant, the airport, a store, or at a larger group setting like a conference or event, you would overhear this opening dialogue from people, trying to become reacquainted with each other.

Early in my career, I can remember the uncomfortable feeling of not wanting to approach someone for fear I would embarrass myself, or them, with rapid-fire questions, trying for something to hit home in either one of our minds. As time went on, and after a job transfer to California, a customer of mine helped me overcome this reservation of mine.

We used to enjoy lunch at a small diner called Bette's Oceanview Diner, in Berkeley, CA. Man, I loved this place. It was small and on the noisy side, not to mention crowded at most any hour – but certainly worth the wait. We would be talking outside waiting for a table. Since his business was located nearby, it was not unusual for someone to come up and begin talking to us. But, if he happened to recognize someone and could not remember who they were, he would go up to them and say, “I don’t remember your name, or where we have met before. Who are you?”

The first time this happened, I thought the approach a bit rough and discourteous. But, when I saw the other person’s positive reaction, I decided that maybe he was on to something. There was no need to waste either person’s time in polite chitchat hoping to trigger your memory. Over time, I refined my own approach by offering possibilities of a location, or people in common, similar to the example at the beginning of this Post.

But this recent experience has got me wondering. Are people more reluctant to approach each other in-person when it’s not intended to be a “social networking event”? I haven’t changed my approach, but it sure seems like others are more reserved; even more so when approached by someone they see as a stranger. Is it just me; or have we reached a point of hiding behind screens tossing out endless digital requests, that we have lost the fine art of getting to know each other, and renew an old acquaintance.