Sales is more than just a numbers game...

What’s the sales (forecast) algorithm for your business?

While reading a recent issue of Popular Science, I was intrigued by the article “The Santa Cruz Experiment: Can a City's Crime Be Predicted and Prevented?” (October, 2011). It’s fascinating and appears to hold great potential. However, what triggered a related thought to the challenge of accurate sales forecasting (i.e., your sales algorithm) was this: “One of the most common criticisms of predictive policing is that it will not tell police officers anything they don’t know already.”

When I talk to organizations about instituting a disciplined sales approach, and the need for good data gathering, resistance to software and information technology reflects a similar sentiment. Salespeople would rather operate on their own intuition than trust a computer model (or algorithm) to help them predict the close of a sale. 

As the article points out, “An algorithm is a progressive series of calculations used to process and analyze large sets of data.” Said another way, it’s not foolproof in predicting an exact outcome; it merely points to the likelihood of something to occur based on past behavior (or available data). In my mind, that’s the Catch-22 in sales forecasts; if you can’t get people to enter the data, you won’t be able to get the algorithm to reflect a reasonable prediction.

Since I believe most customers have a defined purchase process, and most organizations can likely map a common sales cycle, I struggle to understand why it seems so difficult to build a more predictable forecast model. Rather than ‘gut probability’, often reflected as a percentage of likeliness to close (get the order), it seems to me that you should be able to weight factors against common data points (e.g., time lapse, stage of the sales cycle, past performance/seniority of the salesperson, etc.) and develop a more accurate sales forecast prediction.

My recent discussions with sales professionals, managers, and business owners and executives on this topic have given rise to the notion that the unpredictability that can’t be factored in is “people”. That applies to both sides of the sales equation; on the customer side and the vendor/supplier side. However, the Santa Cruz Experiment leads me to believe that even in high-touch sales situations, where long term relationships help drive business, some predictability could be factored in.

Read the article from Popular Science and let’s get some discussion going on this topic. Also, think in terms of those companies that don’t have the luxury of large software and information technology budgets. Can the average company develop and implement a predictive sales model?

Can Harvey Mackay add anything new in his latest book, The Mackay MBA Of Selling In The Real World?

That’s what I asked myself when I was offered a copy of the book for review. Since I lean more toward the systematic selling style, and profess that a disciplined process is needed for an accelerated sales cycle, I initially steered clear of the request. But, fortunately, I reconsidered and had it sent to someone I know who is not only a fan of Harvey Mackay, but also one who would be practicing what he has read from Mackay in the past.

Don Kusterer, who has written reviews of other books we sent his way, was willing to take this latest book under his wing. I say that not only as jest, but also as fact; he would need to read it during his many coast to coast trips for business. Don is a guy who is the consummate road warrior when it comes to close customer contact. Unlike many of today’s virtual sales encounters, Don likes to understand the customer’s needs firsthand.

To expedite the book review process, I talked to Don on the phone, and asked him for any first impressions or notes he might have made along the way.

Don was quick to say, “I’ve been a fan of his since “Swim with the Sharks”. Struggling with time, to get through the beginning of the book, I found the nuggets (of wisdom) and sayings coming back from earlier books to be a redo, or so I thought.” Continuing on, Don wanted to suggest in fairness to Mackay, that he has read many books on selling, motivation, and sales psychology, so he couldn’t be sure where he may have first seen or heard them. Also, “In the same vein, when you’ve written as many books as Harvey Mackay, it is equally hard to keep the material fresh for fans.”

In Don’s mind, that’s not a problem with Mackay’s latest book. “As I moved through the chapters, sometimes only one or two at a time, my position and thought changed, too. Perhaps this was his purpose; to stir up the well-known things that we just don’t use on a regular basis, and bring them back from memory.” 

Motivated to dig into the second half of the book with a new enthusiasm, Don emphasized “Following a breather in my business, when I reached Chapter 41 (“Watch Out for These Four Letter Words”), I felt this was definitely a must read for everyone who finds themselves engaged in any type of sales assignment or customer contact. It was here that I found a new stride; I found myself in a much more creative state of mind, jotting notes on paper and in the margins as I read.  After all, isn’t that what an MBA is for, to develop the creative side of the student reader?”

Don’s home turf of St Louis began to creep in as we talked. “I recall someone recently describing the manager of the World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals, Tony LaRussa, as “Tony is always 2 innings ahead of everyone else.” That’s the way I felt about Mackay’s later chapters that bring forward today’s additional demands of CRM (Customer Relationship Management), and how to use the Internet and social networks to your advantage.”

Can someone like Don, with 40 years experience in sales and management in the health care industry, make use of this book? “It’s a book for both young salespeople and more seasoned pros alike. One could pick at the style, or perhaps the trite sayings, not to mention the staccato method of putting the book together, but in the words of the #1 Cardinal fan, the late Jack Buck, I would declare Mackay’s newest book as, "That's a Winner!” It’s an easy read; one that can be put down and picked up again without losing a beat.“

Backgrounder: Harvey Mackay

As the founder and chairman of the $100 million MackayMitchell Envelope Company, Mackay has become a well known author, syndicated weekly business columnist,  has written six New York Times bestselling books (three #1s), and likely known best for the blockbuster “Swim with the Sharks Without Being Eaten Alive”.

Would-be inventors need not apply

When I composed the original blog Post “For would-be inventors, or aspiring entrepreneurs – Five things worth thinking about before you begin “, I was struck by the notion of how difficult and unforgiving the market can be to an aspiring inventor. This is not to suggest that one shouldn’t pursue their dreams; it’s more about understanding the challenge associated with bringing an idea to fruition.

In my recent conversation with a mid-size industrial design firm, the conversation and responding emails pointed out their struggle in working with startup contacts, companies pre-vesting, and those lacking a business plan. They also pointed out that in their experience,  “significant funding” would be required to “take a product to market the right way (i.e. alpha, beta, production phases – contract manufacturing)”.

One law firm we know who deals in intellectual property and patent law does not represent individual inventors; they represent corporate and university clients, only. They go on to suggest that the road to success has many pitfalls and challenges, and they recommend the individual inventor should seek out the Inventors Resources of the USPTO for assistance and direction. Filing a patent can be time-consuming and costly. Also, some changes are afoot regarding patents on what should prevail in granting the patent: “first to invent” (current system), or “first to file” (proposed change through new legislation).

In some ways, you can see that the likelihood of success may not be in the lone inventor’s favor. That doesn’t mean it can’t be done. What’s important to know is what you are getting yourself into before you start. By removing the would-be portion of the equation, you can increase the odds in your favor.

First and foremost, develop your idea or invention into a reasonably working prototype. Although an attractive design in a CAD file may sound like a good soapbox to promote your idea, it won’t go far in attracting interest or investment. Like the adage “A picture is worth a thousand words”, there is nothing like being able to hold something in your hands and get a feel for how it works.

Once you have a good feel for your invention – at the risk of bad grammar, something that kind of works like it should – either begin to work with a local, independent design firm, or try your hand at working drawings with software like Google SketchUp; start out with the free version, then upgrade to PRO (you’ll likely need the PRO version to get some rapid prototypes built). Don’t forget the NDA (non-disclosure agreement) before sharing information, designs, or materials with others.

Assuming you get this far, get that business plan underway. Hopefully this exercise will quickly surface just how much money you’ll need to get your invention from idea into action. Also, begin the show-and-tell (assuming you are protecting your intellectual property in the process) to close friends and business associates. The best advice I can give here is don’t get defensive if they think you have lost your mind. Overcome objections or deficiencies in the same way you would respond to your choice of entrée in a restaurant; politely defend your choice, but listen to the reason your fellow diners are questioning your selection or taste buds.

Ready to go to market? You will need to have a proof-positive production run to show people you are serious about selling your invention; that’s not going to be a cheap endeavor. I recently followed two inventions from different companies that are sold into the home improvement market (suited to the average homeowner). Both inventions retail in the under $25 MSRP range. From what I could read, they each took about $250,000 of investment to enter the market; each one now enjoys distribution and sale in the big-box home improvement centers. Also, both inventions appeared to show an 18-24 month development cycle from idea to sales success.

With a few good steps along the way, you can move from “would-be inventor” to full-fledged entrepreneur. By securing adequate funding, exercising careful development of your product, and acquiring solid sales and distribution channels, you stand a better chance to turn your idea into a high-growth company.

Unkempt sales tracking outperforms CRM and sales force automation

They are a high-spirited and independent bunch; equally so, they all get along and the camaraderie is deafening. This group of seasoned salespeople will go about their business with a low-key approach, but a competitive spirit that is second to none.

Laughing in the face of CRM and more sophisticated sales tracking, their day may begin with 3 x 5 index cards, or a simple spiral bound notebook you might otherwise find in any school-age child’s classroom. Handwritten notes carry some reminders of the customer and contact events, and no page is without its fair share of strikeouts and markups of text.

Cell phone use is of simple nature – they use their phones to manage the customer’s needs much like an air traffic controller at a busy airport. Customer service reps are like ground controllers by helping each order navigate its way to completion. A few text messages here and there, and certainly a fair amount of voice mail, but email is best left to when they get home, or on the chance they will stop by the office for a visit.

Unlike their brethren who diligently – in many cases, unwillingly - update their call management software with notes and alerts, all the while losing more selling time just to keep their nose clean in the face of management, they don’t confuse activity with productivity.

How do they keep track of it all? Not much different than when the generation before them lacked today’s complex software and information technology. They are not unlike the restaurateur who remembers their best customers favorite choices that is often prefaced by, “I’ll have my usual.”

These are high touch individuals and they have the sustainable revenue numbers to prove it. Many are engaged in multigenerational businesses. Trust is a key component for their success - on the part of the customer, the company, and those who support their sales efforts.

Although you may not find them featured in a major business magazine or cover story, you are likely to see many of these professionals recognized in the local newspaper or an industry trade journal. If this sounds like you, your company, or someone you do business with, I would enjoy hearing your stories of success and how you manage your business in today’s highly competitive environment without all the stylish technology others would like to put upon you.

Book Review - Strengths Based Selling

Strengths Based Selling: Based on Decades of Gallup's Research into High-Performing Salespeople
by Tony Rutigliano and Brian Brim

“The book includes action items and real-life examples that illustrate how using strengths produces high-impact sales results.” “Top salespeople from Microsoft, Pfizer, and U.S. Bank, among others, also share their insights in this book. STRENGTHS BASED SELLING is full of success stories, making this the essential handbook for every kind of salesperson in every industry.”

This was part of the pre-release announcement for the book; with a description like this, I welcomed their offer of an advance copy for review. Sounded a bit like “In Search of Excellence” from the 1980s, except it would be fully-dedicated to sales. Well, not exactly. What I discovered was a very quick read of sales tips and ideas, sprinkled with a story or two of someone from a larger company, all the while promoting the Clifton StrengthsFinder (Dr. Donald O. Clifton).

I had to think about this for a moment; why did this idea of putting salespeople into profile categories gnaw at me so much? Bing! The book “Now, Discover Your Strengths (2001)” – same concept, and interestingly enough the co-author was Donald O. Clifton, along with Marcus Buckingham.

Whereas Buckingham may refer to them as 34 distinct worker profiles or personality themes, Strengths Based Selling calls them “Talent Themes” They also share the same titles of "Achiever", “Arranger", “Includer”, "Learner", etc. And, each book provisioned a means to go to a website and do a “brief assessment” (profile) of your own to see where you fit -  the purchase of the Strengths Based Selling book and code will offer you the “top five talent themes” in return.

On a positive note, I liked the book, Now, Discover Your Strengths. It brought forth the idea that instead of working on weaknesses, capitalize on your strengths. I have recommended it to a number of people. But, in the case of Strengths Based Selling, the talent themes got old fast. In fairness to the authors, and in the spirit of full disclosure, I am a proponent of the H R Chally Group’s predictive assessments for job roles and responsibilities. I find myself judging most any other system of personnel assessment against Chally’s work.

With highlighter and pencil in hand, I was ready to dig deeper looking for some valuable nuggets of sales wisdom and time-tested techniques; the book opens with “…we will give you strategies and tips to help use your strengths to increase your sales performance and to achieve success.” I found my initial excitement of reading first-hand accounts of top salespeople’s experiences - from major, well-known companies - was soon forgotten.

Laboring through the chapters, each with its introductory “This Chapter’s Key Points”, I found myself longing for the hands-on examples of putting someone’s strengths to work in selling. Also, for some reason the chapters didn’t seem to build on each other; it felt more like a compilation of notes than a guided trip of “Decades of Gallup's Research into High-Performing Salespeople”.

In the first chapter, talking about Gallup’s research studying “performance in many professions”, the authors talk about, “We examined the data in every possible way to try to find an explanation for the startling variance in these sales results.” Immediately upon reading this, I reflected on my own career of over 30 years in sales – the research concluded “The difference was talent” (italics was in the book – do you see “talent theme” coming through?). What about territory assignments, team selling, poor product performance, etc.

I don’t recall anything being said about the trials and tribulations of territory assignments. I am confident there are a number of people who would be willing to talk about the quality of a sales territory, or product line (specialty), as performance criteria. It wasn’t until Chapter 9 that I saw something – actually quite little, as the chapter is only 7 pages long – about Team Sales. I am also an advocate of team selling and am often known to say, Selling is a Team Sport.

S.M.A.R.T. goals may be a simple litmus test for Sales Forecasts

As a volunteer with a nonprofit, I have been helping program participants define and carry-out “S.M.A.R.T. goals”; individually, the letters stand for: “Specific, Measurable, Attainable (or achievable), Realistic and Timely”. To help you understand the concept, here is a link to a simple write-up from the Office of Multicultural Affairs, University of Kansas, which outlines the process for students.

When it comes to setting these goals, I find many people struggle with defining the goal in a SMART manner; especially when there are so many variables in their life. The variables may include income, housing, job, education, etc. I can appreciate the challenge; it’s what I often refer to as, “How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time!”

And so it seems with sales forecasts. Salespeople often struggle, and are regularly challenged by management, to put a strong definition around a particular sale, or quantity of business. I have written a number of blog posts, articles, and even recorded Podcasts on the topic of sales forecasting. It’s the most searched (for) string that directs traffic to our Website; some of traffic ends up at this blog, too (we have a category named “Sales Forecasts”).

That alone leads me to believe that there must be a less elaborate way to forecasting sales. You don’t need some fancy CRM system that spits out charts and sales funnels to have a disciplined approach. It’s as simple as knowing where you are going and how you are going to get there. You can do that on paper – 3 x 5 index cards will do.

But, for those running a business, nothing short of a disciplined process is in order. You have seen it before from me, “It takes a disciplined process to produce an accelerated sales cycle.” That said, why wouldn’t a SMART goal process work for sales forecasting?

Enter a round of laughter on my part. When I began to write this post, I quickly realized that the S.M. part was easy, but the A.R.T. is not. The chuckling came as I reflected on how many times people have told me there is an ‘art’ to selling; it’s not a science. Also, I am overdue on a book review for “Strengths Based Selling” (Tony Rutigliano and Brian Brim) that talks about how understanding your “…innate talents and strengths and use them to sell more effectively.” are the qualities of the most successful reps.

That may be so for some, but in my management of sales teams over the years, it wasn’t until I got everyone on the same page that I could better forecast our numbers. If I could get the team to have “clearly-defined, written-down goals” in the form of a sales forecast, then we could work together on specific pieces of business, in a timely manner (the “T” in SMART).

Once that was accomplished, it was a matter of fending off the merry-go-round discussions of what was realistic business to be had and whether it was attainable based on what we had to offer (i.e., competition, product, services, price, etc.). Therein lies the stalemate in my mind; management and sales holding to an undefined position when it comes to attainable and realistic business.

Laughter subsiding - I can already see the notes coming my way about how selling is an ‘art’ and not a ‘science’ – I believe there is a way to overcome the obstacle. By putting in place a clear definition of what constitutes good business (i.e., great product fit, good pricing, excellent service), it’s only a matter of whether you’re the right vendor and can deliver the order on time (by the client’s deadline, or your own to make the forecast date).

Opening this up to the floor, so to speak, weigh-in with a comment on what you think about SMART goals when it comes to sales forecasts.

Book Review - Competitive Selling: Out-Plan, Out-Think, and Out-Sell to Win Every Time

Competitive Selling: Out-Plan, Out-Think, and Out-Sell to Win Every Time
by Landy Chase, founder of Landy Chase Incorporated

A book review by Danny Rosin

Out-plan. Out-think. Out-sell. Powerful words are emblazoned on Landy Chase’s book, “Competitive Selling.” With a title like that, how could a salesperson not feel compelled to at least read a few pages? I did, and having put what he preaches into action, we are winning more deals, albeit learning some hard lessons along the way.

Want to learn the tricks of how to beat your competition and retain crucial margin integrity? In what truly is a new business climate, selling styles must adapt to the market’s condition. In fact, selling right now is downright hard! It takes a lot more thought and strategy. It takes networking skills, vision, and patience.

In our office, we have a saying, “Prepare and Prevent rather than Repair and Repent.” This is easy when said aloud but to make this mantra actionable, it takes a plan. Chase’s book will help you with a time-tested plan; his easy to understand AND executable step-by-step process truly should help you close more business. Beyond that, you get to look like a pro and act like a predator along the way.  

So, what is it that is in his secret sauce? Without giving too much away, here are a few bright-line takeaways that are helping my company:

a. Identify key players/inner circle, conduct needs analysis and access the person who controls decisions,
b. Be able to persuasively demonstrate what you have in terms of value,
c. Drive the meeting with effective/enjoyable presentations and agendas,
d. Research the hell out of your prospect and ask really good questions and let them elaborate,
e. Recognize and address the “games people play” in bid situations,
f. Do not proceed with a proposal until you are able to meet with everyone, 1:1, who has a vested interest in the outcome, and
g. Do not build a proposal around the given budget. Build a solution around the needs of the customer. Give two proposals – one with budget and one based on needs of the client.

Along these lines, RFPs (Request for Proposals) are a sales activity that can offer exciting business potential because it may reward you with significant new business generation. However, they often act as the biggest ‘resource suck’ in your company. Spending time and energy on an RFP often ends up as a letdown, because you did not do your homework in advance of the RFP and failed to offer a solid proposal to the customer. Often risky, most organizations abhor them despite the fact that RFPs are the gatekeepers to winning the bigger deals for your company.

The book comes with some suggestions that are a bit too cheesy for my taste, like the personal bio sheet with mug shot and list of credentials – I see that as a possible turn-off for some decision makers. But overall, Chase identifies and understands the host of personalities involved in a decision-making process, and he shows you best the approach for each. 

My recommendation to you, after reading Chase’s book, is to make the necessary changes in your plan to garner new business, so your company can be high-fiving rather than passing around the Kleenex(R).

Danny Rosin is the President of Brand Fuel, a full-service promotional products agency that helps its clients elevate their brand. Brand Fuel is consecutively listed in the Top 100 Promotional Agencies (out of 26,000), and is also recognized in the top 2% of the industry in revenues. Rosin's responsibilities include managing sales and marketing, employee recruitment, and providing tactical counsel to clients.

Outside of Brand Fuel, Rosin is President and co-founder of Band Together, a 100% volunteer organization that raises funds and awareness for local charities through live concert events.

Usher your strongest critic to the front row

We all talk a good game when it comes to welcoming criticism. But the reality is that no matter who delivers the message, we rarely take it well. In a group setting, we get some comfort if the critic is surrounded by our strongest advocate, hoping they may silence an otherwise unwelcome outburst.

Mike Gerhardstein, the man I consider my mentor in sales, once told me a proverb about donkeys that helped me overcome someone's unwelcome criticism. Although I have seen this in various forms, the way it was told to me was, “If one man calls you an ass, pay him no mind. If three men call you an ass, look for tracks. If five men call you an ass, you better shop for a saddle.”

And so it is with the way I look at criticism. If the frequency of the observation is high and consistent, I better come to terms with it quickly. However, if it’s few and far between, or the source stands alone, then I revert to “…pay him no mind.”

Where this tends to come to a head in sales is the rejection from the buyer of what we have to sell. It’s easy to take it personally, as a reflection on us, the person. When I recorded the podcast “When faced with sales rejection, don’t take it personally”, much of that segment focuses on isolating why the sale or product was not being well-received (by the buyer) versus a reflection on someone’s character.

In your sales presentations, find ways to offer attendees the opportunity to find fault in your work. Listen carefully to what they have to say, and reflect on their challenge before you respond. Rather than retreat from a critic, you should give them every opportunity to come forward; usher them to the front row.

Take the One Goal - Revenue Generation ® Challenge

We have started a new members-only Discussion series in the One Goal - Revenue Generation ® Podcast Group on LinkedIn. Each week I post a real-world sales situation for consideration, asking the Group members to weigh-in on the situation.

Members will read over the Challenge and at the end of the question(s) offer comments on how they have handled, or overcome this challenge in a like way, i.e., not some theoretical idea or concept, but real-world experience applied to a similar situation.

You can access the One Goal - Revenue Generation ® Podcast Group on LinkedIn from here.

Book Review - Put the Win Back in Your Sales

Put the Win Back in Your Sales
by Dan Kreutzer, sales expert and partner at the Samurai Business Group LLC

A book review by Don Kusterer

Out of the wrapper, and sans a little of the glitz, “Put the Win Back in Your Sales” is perhaps the most refreshing look at the techniques and understanding of my profession in years.   While one must market a “system” for the learning side of selling, this is a book that I would want to pass along to my troops, and to good friends, but not one I want my competitors to even be aware of. 

In his book, Dan Kreutzer frames and stresses, in this reviewer’s humble opinion, virtually all of the components and skill sets necessary for success in today’s data-rich, yet relationship-driven marketplace, with secrets from the past that have been overlooked for the past 20 years, or more.   This is done in a short, thin, and easy to read 110-page format that can be skimmed and highlighted, read, then skimmed again in coaching mode; you can coast through the learning curve with only a little effort. 

The author spends the first two chapters describing today’s selling environment and contemporary sales processes. Then additional chapters include why we buy, cognitive thinking, reasoning and the emotional part of sales, his method - the new science of selling - and his decision model in action. Kreutzer closes with an overview of the process and a variety of “case studies”.  A lot of information in a tight space, this is perfect for the sales person of today who is overcome with emails, conference calls, and drinking from a fire hose on product changes, who also seems to have absolutely no time to educate himself or herself on their profession.  I’ve lost count of the many times I have heard, “I haven’t got the time to be out of the field for training”.

Naturally, much like Kreutzer, most of us feel that everyone in our marketplace needs what we have to sell, that we need to build a better product, etc.  The only component that might be considered glossed over in Kreutzer’s tome is “buy-in” on the part of the salesperson. While the objective is the sale, there are times that the WIIFM (what’s in it for me) is not completion of that sale, but a seed in the buyer’s mind garden that will take time and follow-up to mature.  This perhaps could be loosely construed to be a part of the trust relationship that becomes the Kruetzer centerpiece.  His premise is that the salesperson must add value to the transaction.  I couldn’t agree more.  Most of the time today, as in the past, the inherent drive of new people in the field, and the direction of sales management, is instant sales and income, with the resultant gratification in the things commissions will purchase.  The trust relationship is what is lacking for many companies in this time of high turnover and constant effort spent training new people.  There’s a thought here on job satisfaction; it’s not all about the money.

Kreutzer’s “Put the Win Back in Your Sales” is a sales manual that the seasoned veteran should read as a part of (in the words of Stephen Covey) “sharpening the saw”.  The person new to our profession should read this book as a primer, and those in management should read it to make sure they are aware of what is current - though the concepts lend themselves to my humble beginnings in sales more than 40 years ago.   This is a must read for all sales executives who are interested in developing their people.  It is amazing how many packages that are labeled training, have roots in the past, yet still refresh those who have been on the road to sales success for many years.  

The book, while a short course in sales skills, is obviously the catalyst to generate interest in looking at the Samurai Sales Mastery series, and the management program of Samurai Business Group LLC.  A sales trainer would be remiss in not investigating this more. Kreutzer goes on to discuss that education must be a process, not an event; as Kreutzer comments, “within 60 days of the training event 87 percent of the content has been lost”.  While ongoing training is not my primary assignment, I plan to look closer at the outlines of the two programs in the near future. 

“Don’t look for the leader; instead let the line form behind you”. – Don  Kusterer

Don Kusterer is a sales and marketing executive with Care Line Inc., an industry leading custom packaging and medical pillow manufacturing company headquartered in Greenbrier TN.  He has over 40 years experience in sales, recruiting, training and management in the health care industry.