As the AIM message hit my desktop, I knew I would answer, “No, I haven’t gotten to it, yet.” The question was related to whether I had read the latest “All Things Digital” in Monday’s (June 9th), The Wall Street Journal. It was in reference to the interview with Jeffrey Bezos of Amazon.com Inc.
Having put this section aside to read as short stories, I had read the article on Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer. Interesting history and I enjoyed the forthright discussion on passing the baton of leadership from Gates to Ballmer. But, I can’t buy into the notion that using XP is a “downgrade” in the choice of operating systems over Vista (“Is Vista a Failure?”).
Encouraged by the instant message to read the article on Bezos, I picked up The Journal Report expecting to read something visionary or as yet undiscovered in their business model, Amazon.com the company, or Bezos himself. Sorry, unless I missed something, most of it was old news to me. But, what did catch my attention was the discussion of sales results surrounding the Kindle.
When asked how many of the Kindles were sold, Bezos declined to answer the question directly. However, he did respond with “a new stat” to demonstrate the trend. According to the article, he stated that there are “125,000 book titles available for Kindle” and when compared to the “physical book sales of those same titles (at Amazon.com), the Kindle sales are now more than 6% of those total sales.”
So, what does that 6% mean? I assume he is talking about sales revenue. Or, is it the number of units sold, i.e., volume of books? Either way, without knowing how much of the “physical book sales of the same titles” was sold, in the same period, I am at a loss for what that 6% represents in revenue to the business. Assuming the average Kindle user buys multiple titles, that doesn’t tell me much about the installed base of Kindle users. You could probably go on from here with other like questions in search of the answer. I left with a shrug and moved on to the next article on Yahoo – which seemed like another numbers dance.
When it comes to sales forecasts and looking at projections, it’s usually not long before you hear me utter, “Anyone can hide under a 90-day forecast.” I don’t see where it is to anyone’s benefit to twist numbers into something believable in an attempt to make it look good. It usually comes to the surface sooner or later. Another favorite phrase of mine, “Bad news doesn’t get better with time.” – it’s normally expressed by me when talking about Public Relations (PR) – seems to hold true when it comes to projecting sales results that are going to fall short of the goal.
I won’t pretend that I haven’t been a party to this activity myself. As a salesperson, sales manager, and sales executive, I was always optimistic that we could hit the numbers. And, when the clock began to count down to the looming Forecast deadline, I would scramble to find some reassurance that the numbers would support my optimism, or at least build confidence in others. Nothing beats ‘positive spin’ when a bit of ‘need to feel-good’ is in order.
Now older, and hopefully a tad wiser, I take a more pragmatic approach to Sales Forecasts. I use the same posture as when my children were growing up and it was report card time at school. They would hear me say, “Just give me the news. I don’t care whether it’s good news or bad news, just give me the news.” As adults, they laugh about it now. But, they still hear it on occasion when they ask my advice that seems begging a response of, “What ‘really’ happened?”
I’m not attempting to dispute any of the aforementioned numbers, or question how/why they were presented; quite frankly, I think the Kindle, Amazon's new wireless reading device, is a good idea. See this as a plea to encourage all sales professionals to adopt the posture of solid sales forecast reporting. You owe it to yourself, your boss, and your company.