Sandbagging the Forecast

It doesn’t take long before the rookie salesperson learns the fine art of sandbagging (the sales forecast). The same applies to newly appointed sales managers. In most cases, the practice continues as experience and tenure take-hold.

While reading Jared Sandberg’s column in today’s The Wall Street Journal, “Why Preparing Others For an Effort's Failure Can Bring You Success”, I reflected on the various reasons cited as to why we set low expectations. I wanted to find some nugget of wisdom that would account for this common practice as it applies to sales forecasting.

It was “…rain-making employees can lose their luster compared with laggards who surprise everybody…” that got my interest. So did the part about opinions being formed not by facts, but by expectations. This rang a familiar tone in the area of sales forecasting. I have seen all too often salespeople judged on what was expected of them vs. what they accomplished.

That’s where I think the sandbagging factor kicks-in. In an effort to lower the expectation, the salesperson lowers the sales forecast (for the period). In doing so, they can exceed the commitment and have everyone be ‘pleasantly surprised’. In place of criticism, they receive praise; it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Much like the stock analysts cited in the article, it won’t be long before management catches on. That’s where the pressure begins to build. As the company seeks more accurate forecasting, the “wow factor” of surprise (results) diminishes and more awareness is placed on the salesperson. What I see happen next is the overly optimistic forecast to fill the accolade gap.

Sandbagging is a bigger problem than most of us are willing to admit. It’s enough of a problem that NetSuite has built intelligence into their forecast tools to account for it and calling it ‘"mood ring" forecast overrides’. I don’t believe you need sophisticated software and information technology to overcome the practice. It can be as simple as spending more time with your salespeople and understanding their business (projections).

That’s why I think it’s so important to get a handle on this. If you find sandbagging going on, put it ‘in check’. Don’t praise the surprise; look closer and determine why/how it started in the first place. Put it to rest ASAP.